The short answer
At U.S. average prices, heating an average 1,800 sq ft house for a year costs about $1,165.83 with a heat pump and $802.00 with a 95% gas furnace, so gas is cheaper in a typical U.S. climate. Propane ($1,510.99), oil ($1,767.82) and electric baseboard ($2,739.97) all cost more than a heat pump. Where you live matters: in Georgia, with mild winters, the heat pump costs about $491.59 vs $576.26 for gas; in Minnesota, with cold winters and cheap gas, $2,179.08 vs $942.69.
Heat pump vs gas and propane in every state
Yearly cost to heat an 1,800 sq ft house with average insulation, at each state's electricity rate (August 2026), gas price (2025), propane price and winter.
| Alabama | $477.10 | $470.05 | $1,052.31 | 2,669 | 16.33¢ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | $4,775.99 | $1,299.90 | $2,899.65 | 9,979 | 29.41¢ |
| Arizona | $305.87 | $357.96 | $557.61 | 1,919 | 15.05¢ |
| Arkansas | $551.23 | $657.28 | $904.19 | 3,391 | 14.37¢ |
| California | $922.38 | $621.69 | $817.68 | 2,814 | 29.75¢ |
| Colorado | $1,649.42 | $793.80 | $1,784.21 | 7,053 | 17.17¢ |
| Connecticut | $1,829.84 | $987.43 | $2,552.69 | 5,849 | 24.51¢ |
| Delaware | $998.80 | $719.45 | $1,823.71 | 4,483 | 18.70¢ |
| District of Columbia | $1,417.92 | $765.58 | $1,741.86 | 4,563 | 25.98¢ |
| Florida | $98.63 | $165.61 | $343.77 | 646 | 14.99¢ |
| Georgia | $491.59 | $576.26 | $985.17 | 2,807 | 15.90¢ |
| Hawaii | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | 0 | 47.18¢ |
| Idaho | $1,238.43 | $529.79 | $1,847.51 | 6,870 | 13.37¢ |
| Illinois | $1,525.90 | $693.46 | $1,328.73 | 6,105 | 19.32¢ |
| Indiana | $1,208.70 | $651.01 | $1,584.05 | 5,628 | 17.02¢ |
| Iowa | $1,565.04 | $725.14 | $1,236.02 | 6,822 | 17.06¢ |
| Kansas | $916.26 | $726.63 | $1,055.69 | 4,876 | 15.47¢ |
| Kentucky | $719.92 | $627.75 | $1,337.78 | 4,397 | 13.80¢ |
| Louisiana | $222.89 | $289.57 | $544.69 | 1,654 | 12.87¢ |
| Maine | $3,531.69 | $1,479.49 | $2,908.47 | 7,758 | 32.11¢ |
| Maryland | $1,167.96 | $741.80 | $1,866.65 | 4,563 | 21.40¢ |
| Massachusetts | $2,421.43 | $1,546.43 | $2,382.73 | 6,132 | 30.48¢ |
| Michigan | $2,076.44 | $738.05 | $1,737.04 | 6,745 | 22.99¢ |
| Minnesota | $2,179.08 | $942.69 | $1,896.29 | 8,534 | 17.20¢ |
| Mississippi | $372.69 | $400.82 | $822.13 | 2,389 | 14.43¢ |
| Missouri | $974.11 | $747.31 | $1,191.70 | 4,980 | 16.02¢ |
| Montana | $1,978.19 | $775.17 | $1,968.05 | 8,550 | 15.57¢ |
| Nebraska | $1,110.57 | $720.00 | $1,152.32 | 6,281 | 13.54¢ |
| Nevada | $498.12 | $456.86 | $1,003.07 | 3,452 | 12.72¢ |
| New Hampshire | $2,867.57 | $1,397.28 | $3,038.78 | 7,449 | 27.64¢ |
| New Jersey | $1,567.65 | $737.83 | $2,137.70 | 5,168 | 24.61¢ |
| New Mexico | $876.80 | $441.74 | $1,469.42 | 4,462 | 16.51¢ |
| New York | $2,212.06 | $1,063.12 | $2,413.89 | 6,001 | 28.65¢ |
| North Carolina | $567.22 | $553.07 | $1,286.08 | 3,359 | 14.95¢ |
| North Dakota | $1,889.27 | $880.50 | $1,705.84 | 9,184 | 13.31¢ |
| Ohio | $1,395.61 | $794.42 | $1,672.53 | 5,689 | 19.38¢ |
| Oklahoma | $596.61 | $512.05 | $894.25 | 3,535 | 14.82¢ |
| Oregon | $1,039.21 | $884.03 | $1,531.04 | 5,269 | 15.92¢ |
| Pennsylvania | $1,572.01 | $861.45 | $1,903.43 | 5,701 | 21.77¢ |
| Rhode Island | $2,062.70 | $1,254.75 | $2,382.99 | 5,761 | 28.18¢ |
| South Carolina | $444.66 | $439.44 | $1,008.19 | 2,587 | 15.76¢ |
| South Dakota | $1,627.66 | $755.67 | $1,556.92 | 7,633 | 15.15¢ |
| Tennessee | $579.63 | $445.98 | $1,347.48 | 3,754 | 13.42¢ |
| Texas | $305.00 | $354.28 | $609.06 | 1,818 | 15.91¢ |
| Utah | $1,260.01 | $712.74 | $1,821.16 | 6,979 | 13.31¢ |
| Vermont | $2,771.72 | $1,461.13 | $3,388.22 | 8,058 | 23.84¢ |
| Virginia | $885.44 | $719.01 | $1,679.20 | 4,259 | 17.64¢ |
| Washington | $1,034.69 | $993.86 | $1,630.13 | 5,610 | 14.63¢ |
| West Virginia | $1,013.47 | $702.29 | $1,974.67 | 5,067 | 16.31¢ |
| Wisconsin | $2,044.68 | $815.99 | $1,638.66 | 7,529 | 19.41¢ |
| Wyoming | $1,729.50 | $968.56 | $2,052.57 | 8,225 | 14.43¢ |
Propane and heating oil prices are each state's average over the weekly EIA survey for winter 2025-26, or its region's or the U.S. average where EIA doesn't survey the state. Degree days are population-weighted state averages for 1991-2020 (Alaska: Anchorage; Hawaii: Honolulu). With a ZIP code, your own result uses the normals of the weather station nearest the county's center of population; the state table keeps the state averages.
How it works
The formula
heat pump $ = heat ÷ 3,412 ÷ COP × rate
COP = HSPF2 ÷ 3.412 × climate factor
furnace $ = heat ÷ AFUE ÷ BTU per unit × price
Assumptions
- Heat-loss factor: BTU per square foot per degree day: 8 for a poorly insulated house, 5.5 for average, 3.5 for a well-sealed new one. The average is set so an 1,800 sq ft Ohio house needs about 600 therms of gas a year, in line with typical use. Your own house can differ a lot; the ranking of systems doesn't depend on it, because every system heats the same house.
- Degree days measure how cold a winter is: each day, 65°F minus the average temperature, added up over the year. Twice the degree days means about twice the heat.
- Climate factor: HSPF2 is rated for a moderate climate (about 5,000 degree days). As a rule of thumb, we lower the heat pump's efficiency by about 5% per 1,000 degree days colder, to 0.75 at most, and raise it the same way for milder climates, to 1.2, to allow for weaker performance and some backup heat in cold weather. Real results depend on the installation: an undersized heat pump that leans on electric backup strips costs more than this, and a well-sized cold-climate model costs less.
- Heat content (EIA): 100,000 BTU per therm of gas, 91,452 BTU per gallon of propane, 137,381 BTU per gallon of heating oil, 3,412 BTU per kWh.
- Fixed charges: state average prices are total bills divided by usage, so they include fixed monthly charges like the meter fee spread over every therm or kWh. That makes each extra unit look a little dearer than it is. If you'd keep gas for a water heater or stove after switching to a heat pump, the meter fee stays, so the real savings are a bit smaller. For the closest result, type the per-unit price from your bill.
Worked example: an 1,800 sq ft house at U.S. averages
Average insulation, 5,200 degree days, HSPF2 8.1 heat pump vs a 95% gas furnace
- Heat needed: 1,800 × 5.5 × 5,200 = 51.5 million BTU a year
- Heat pump: COP 2.35, so 51,480,000 ÷ 3,412 ÷ 2.35 = 6,420 kWh × 18.16¢ = $1,165.83
- Gas: 51,480,000 ÷ 0.95 ÷ 100,000 = 542 therms × $1.48 = $802.00
- Propane: 51,480,000 ÷ 0.95 ÷ 91,452 = 593 gal × $2.55 = $1,510.99
Ways to cut the cost
- Seal and insulate first. Moving from poor to average insulation cuts the heat a house needs by about a third, whatever heats it.
- Get a cold-climate heat pump in cold states. Look for an HSPF2 of 8.5 or more and rated capacity at 5°F.
- Consider dual fuel. A heat pump with a gas furnace as backup runs on whichever is cheaper at each temperature.
- Check your utility's heat pump rate. Many utilities offer a lower winter rate or rebates for heat pumps.
- Turn it down at night. With a furnace, 7 to 10°F lower for 8 hours saves up to 10% a year. With a heat pump, keep setbacks small (2 to 3°F) so the backup strips don't kick in on recovery.
Questions people ask
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas furnace?
It depends on your state's electricity and gas prices and how cold it gets: with the example house the heat pump is cheaper in 7 of 50 states. At U.S. average prices, an 1,800 sq ft house costs about $1,165.83 a year to heat with a heat pump and $802.00 with a 95% gas furnace. In Georgia the heat pump costs about $491.59 vs $576.26 for gas; in Minnesota $2,179.08 vs $942.69. Pick your state above to see yours.
Is a heat pump cheaper than propane or oil heat?
Usually. With the example house, a heat pump costs less than propane in 38 of the 50 states that need heating, and less than oil in 42. Propane comes out cheaper in Alaska, California, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin, where cold winters, expensive electricity or cheap propane tip the balance. At U.S. average prices the same house costs about $1,510.99 a year with a propane furnace and $1,767.82 with an 85% oil furnace, against $1,165.83 for a heat pump. Homes heating with propane, oil or electric baseboard save the most by switching.
Do heat pumps work in cold climates?
Yes. Modern cold-climate heat pumps keep heating below 0°F, but they get less efficient as it gets colder, and many homes keep a backup furnace or electric strips for the coldest days. This calculator lowers the heat pump's seasonal efficiency in colder states to account for that. A heat pump paired with a gas furnace ("dual fuel") uses whichever is cheaper at each temperature.
Is there a federal tax credit for a heat pump?
Not for heat pumps installed from 2026 on. The 2025 budget law (the One Big Beautiful Bill Act) ended the 25C energy efficient home improvement credit, up to $2,000 for a heat pump, for property placed in service after December 31, 2025 (IRS). Many pages still quote it. Check your state and electric utility, which often have their own rebates.
Is a heat pump worth it?
Add your two install quotes above. You get the payback, the extra installed cost divided by the yearly saving, and the total of install plus running cost over 10 and 15 years. Where the heat pump costs more to run than gas, it never pays back on heating alone, though it also replaces an air conditioner.
What is HSPF2?
HSPF2 is a heat pump's heating efficiency over a whole season: BTU of heat per watt-hour of electricity. Divide by 3.412 for the COP, the units of heat out per unit of electricity in. Federal minimums are 7.5 HSPF2 for split systems; good units are 8 to 10.
How much does it cost to heat a house per month?
At U.S. average prices, about $160.40 to $233.17 a month for an average 1,800 sq ft house with gas or a heat pump, if most of the yearly cost falls in five winter months. Cold states pay much more, warm states much less.